Late-round fliers
After filling out my starting lineup and drafting a few players for depth, I usually turn my attention to late-round fliers capable of helping my team if their situation breaks right. One of my cardinal beliefs at draft time is that insurance can found throughout the season on the waiver wire. Don't draft a Jamal Lewis or a Julius Jones simply because they top the early-September depth chart. Those players will only help you lose on a consistent basis. Instead, target a player with a high fantasy ceiling who could help you win if the depth chart changes.
[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]
Matt Leinart: Why draft a mediocre Jake Delhomme as your QB2 if an equally mediocre Shaun Hill or Kerry Collins is going to be available for free on the waiver wire? A better move is to stash Matt Leinart, who threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns in the second half Friday night. Kurt Warner is 38-years-old and still feeling the effects offseason hip surgery. If he misses time, a now-seasoned Leinart is an instant fantasy asset with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston as weapons. If it gets to the point where you need an emergency bye-week starter, just drop your least valuable roster-plugger and snag a Byron Leftwich off the waiver wire.
Matthew Stafford: Call it the Randy Moss effect. Quarterbacks such as Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper, Tom Brady, and even Kerry Collins have seen their fantasy production skyrocket on the strength of the difference-making receiver. While Stafford has had an up-and-down preseason, he's averaged over 8.0 YPA and 70 percent completions in two of his three preseason games. He's already shown that he can move the offense up and down the field, and that rifle arm is going to benefit greatly from the Moss-like production of Calvin Johnson. With Daunte Culpepper's health status up in the air, Stafford could take the reins as soon as Week 1.
Michael Vick: Sure, he's a longshot. One component of the late-round flier is the odds of seeing significant playing time. But there's a more important component: what are his chances of making a fantasy impact if he does see the field? As late as mid-August last year, Kurt Warner was seen as a waste of a draft pick. His history and situation, however, made him the perfect late round flier. A rusty Vick may not have quite the upside of the 2008 Warner, but he's been a Top-3 fantasy finisher twice in his career. Considering Donovan McNabb's injury history, Vick is worth a dice roll in larger leagues.
[SIZE=+1]Running Backs[/SIZE]
James Davis: Davis is available in the late 12th round of most drafts with Jamal Lewis going four-to-five rounds earlier. Davis is averaging 7.8 YPA versus 2.6 for Lewis through three preseason games. Lewis isn't going to start for my fantasy team early in the season (and Michael Lombardi doesn't believe he'll even start for the Browns), so I'd be stuck with a steadily deflating roster handicap. While Lewis' value will continue to dwindle, Davis' will keep rising. In which case, why not draft Davis instead of Lewis?
Glen Coffee: With a league-leading 265 combined rushing/receiving yards through three weeks of preseason action, the physical third-rounder has emerged as a mandatory handcuff for all Frank Gore owners. If the Gore owner in my league falls asleep at the wheel, I'm grabbing Coffee as my fourth running back. He has the potential to put up borderline RB1/RB2 numbers in an offense that revolves around the starting tailback. If Gore goes down, Coffee is money. Isn't that a much better use of a roster spot than an Edgerrin James, Correll Buckhalter, or Sammy Morris?
Tashard Choice: Felix Jones is getting all of the hype, and not undeservedly, but Choice is now the forgotten man in the Cowboys backfield. Despite averaging a combined 122 yards against the murder's row of Giants, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles last December, Choice is going undrafted in many leagues. With his performance record and concerns over Marion Barber's never-say-die running style exposing him to injuries, Choice is well worth the roster stash as a fourth runningback.
DeShawn Wynn: I'm throwing this one in there for deeper leagues. Ryan Grant is in a unique situation as the Packers starting running back. One of his backups – Brandon Jackson – is a much better receiver out of the backfield. Another backup, Wynn, is more skilled as a pass catcher, blocker, and short-yardage back. What has held Wynn back the past couple of seasons are commitment and an inability to stay on the field. By all accounts, he has the commitment part down this year. If he can stay healthy, the Packers will turn to him in the event of a Grant injury or extended slump.
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[SIZE=+1]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]
Davone Bess: The beat writers all are over Brian Hartline as the starter, but Dolphins coaches have delayed a final decision and are saying only that they want one of the receivers to step up. Greg Camarillo (ACL surgery) is obviously not ready for a significant early-season role, and Brian Hartline would be a poor bet to hold onto the job even if he started in Week 1. Bess can contribute in PPR leagues out of the slot. If he manages to sneak into the starting job, he'll have value in all leagues.
Justing Gage / Kenny Britt:Kerry Collins has established a nice rapport with the veteran Gage, who has scored in each of the past two preseason games. Without the dominant presence of Albert Haynesworth, the Titans won't be able to take the air out of the ball with a clock-killing running game all season. Expect to see an increase in passing attempts, with Gage and hot-shot rookie Britt as the early-season benefactors.
Laurent Robinson: Robinson has quietly led the Rams in receptions and yardage through three preseason games and will enter the season as the No. 2 receiver. Donnie Avery's return limits Robinson's immediate value, but don't forget that Robinson flashed both deep speed and possession skills of his own late in his rookie season. Now that he's earned the starting job, fantasy owners can't count on him as injury-filler as well as a roster stash with potential.
[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends[/SIZE]
Zach Miller: Despite finishing sixth among tight ends with 778 yards last season, Miller's current ADP is round 13. He's flying under the radar because he plays for the Raiders, and last year's low touchdown total kept him from joining the elite fantasy tight ends last season. Miller had just one trip to the end zone last season – a statistical anomaly. If he can increase that to just five this year, he has a legitimate shot at Top-5 production.
Brent Celek: Another tight end currently going in the 13th round, Celek has the position all to himself in Philly with L.J. Smith gone and hotshot rookie Cornelius Ingram out for the season. Celek's upside has been well documented with a 131-yard performance in Week 6 spot-start last year and a playoff run that saw him record the third-most catches in NFL history for a tight end. He'll be a major cog in the 2009 Eagles offense.
Jermichael Finley: If preseason is any indication, the Packers are going to live in the red zone this season. There will be scoring opportunities aplenty for the whole offense, and Aaron Rodgers is already looking to Finley as a primary weapon in the end zone. The talented second-year player has carried over his impressive work from the offseason and is now the primary pass-catching tight end in Green Bay.
After filling out my starting lineup and drafting a few players for depth, I usually turn my attention to late-round fliers capable of helping my team if their situation breaks right. One of my cardinal beliefs at draft time is that insurance can found throughout the season on the waiver wire. Don't draft a Jamal Lewis or a Julius Jones simply because they top the early-September depth chart. Those players will only help you lose on a consistent basis. Instead, target a player with a high fantasy ceiling who could help you win if the depth chart changes.
[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]
Matt Leinart: Why draft a mediocre Jake Delhomme as your QB2 if an equally mediocre Shaun Hill or Kerry Collins is going to be available for free on the waiver wire? A better move is to stash Matt Leinart, who threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns in the second half Friday night. Kurt Warner is 38-years-old and still feeling the effects offseason hip surgery. If he misses time, a now-seasoned Leinart is an instant fantasy asset with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston as weapons. If it gets to the point where you need an emergency bye-week starter, just drop your least valuable roster-plugger and snag a Byron Leftwich off the waiver wire.
Matthew Stafford: Call it the Randy Moss effect. Quarterbacks such as Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper, Tom Brady, and even Kerry Collins have seen their fantasy production skyrocket on the strength of the difference-making receiver. While Stafford has had an up-and-down preseason, he's averaged over 8.0 YPA and 70 percent completions in two of his three preseason games. He's already shown that he can move the offense up and down the field, and that rifle arm is going to benefit greatly from the Moss-like production of Calvin Johnson. With Daunte Culpepper's health status up in the air, Stafford could take the reins as soon as Week 1.
Michael Vick: Sure, he's a longshot. One component of the late-round flier is the odds of seeing significant playing time. But there's a more important component: what are his chances of making a fantasy impact if he does see the field? As late as mid-August last year, Kurt Warner was seen as a waste of a draft pick. His history and situation, however, made him the perfect late round flier. A rusty Vick may not have quite the upside of the 2008 Warner, but he's been a Top-3 fantasy finisher twice in his career. Considering Donovan McNabb's injury history, Vick is worth a dice roll in larger leagues.
[SIZE=+1]Running Backs[/SIZE]
James Davis: Davis is available in the late 12th round of most drafts with Jamal Lewis going four-to-five rounds earlier. Davis is averaging 7.8 YPA versus 2.6 for Lewis through three preseason games. Lewis isn't going to start for my fantasy team early in the season (and Michael Lombardi doesn't believe he'll even start for the Browns), so I'd be stuck with a steadily deflating roster handicap. While Lewis' value will continue to dwindle, Davis' will keep rising. In which case, why not draft Davis instead of Lewis?
Glen Coffee: With a league-leading 265 combined rushing/receiving yards through three weeks of preseason action, the physical third-rounder has emerged as a mandatory handcuff for all Frank Gore owners. If the Gore owner in my league falls asleep at the wheel, I'm grabbing Coffee as my fourth running back. He has the potential to put up borderline RB1/RB2 numbers in an offense that revolves around the starting tailback. If Gore goes down, Coffee is money. Isn't that a much better use of a roster spot than an Edgerrin James, Correll Buckhalter, or Sammy Morris?
Tashard Choice: Felix Jones is getting all of the hype, and not undeservedly, but Choice is now the forgotten man in the Cowboys backfield. Despite averaging a combined 122 yards against the murder's row of Giants, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles last December, Choice is going undrafted in many leagues. With his performance record and concerns over Marion Barber's never-say-die running style exposing him to injuries, Choice is well worth the roster stash as a fourth runningback.
DeShawn Wynn: I'm throwing this one in there for deeper leagues. Ryan Grant is in a unique situation as the Packers starting running back. One of his backups – Brandon Jackson – is a much better receiver out of the backfield. Another backup, Wynn, is more skilled as a pass catcher, blocker, and short-yardage back. What has held Wynn back the past couple of seasons are commitment and an inability to stay on the field. By all accounts, he has the commitment part down this year. If he can stay healthy, the Packers will turn to him in the event of a Grant injury or extended slump.
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[SIZE=+1]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]
Davone Bess: The beat writers all are over Brian Hartline as the starter, but Dolphins coaches have delayed a final decision and are saying only that they want one of the receivers to step up. Greg Camarillo (ACL surgery) is obviously not ready for a significant early-season role, and Brian Hartline would be a poor bet to hold onto the job even if he started in Week 1. Bess can contribute in PPR leagues out of the slot. If he manages to sneak into the starting job, he'll have value in all leagues.
Justing Gage / Kenny Britt:Kerry Collins has established a nice rapport with the veteran Gage, who has scored in each of the past two preseason games. Without the dominant presence of Albert Haynesworth, the Titans won't be able to take the air out of the ball with a clock-killing running game all season. Expect to see an increase in passing attempts, with Gage and hot-shot rookie Britt as the early-season benefactors.
Laurent Robinson: Robinson has quietly led the Rams in receptions and yardage through three preseason games and will enter the season as the No. 2 receiver. Donnie Avery's return limits Robinson's immediate value, but don't forget that Robinson flashed both deep speed and possession skills of his own late in his rookie season. Now that he's earned the starting job, fantasy owners can't count on him as injury-filler as well as a roster stash with potential.
[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends[/SIZE]
Zach Miller: Despite finishing sixth among tight ends with 778 yards last season, Miller's current ADP is round 13. He's flying under the radar because he plays for the Raiders, and last year's low touchdown total kept him from joining the elite fantasy tight ends last season. Miller had just one trip to the end zone last season – a statistical anomaly. If he can increase that to just five this year, he has a legitimate shot at Top-5 production.
Brent Celek: Another tight end currently going in the 13th round, Celek has the position all to himself in Philly with L.J. Smith gone and hotshot rookie Cornelius Ingram out for the season. Celek's upside has been well documented with a 131-yard performance in Week 6 spot-start last year and a playoff run that saw him record the third-most catches in NFL history for a tight end. He'll be a major cog in the 2009 Eagles offense.
Jermichael Finley: If preseason is any indication, the Packers are going to live in the red zone this season. There will be scoring opportunities aplenty for the whole offense, and Aaron Rodgers is already looking to Finley as a primary weapon in the end zone. The talented second-year player has carried over his impressive work from the offseason and is now the primary pass-catching tight end in Green Bay.
